Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Mana Saiful ?

We’ve enough news or articles or comment on Pak La, DSAI, Syed Hamid, Hindraf, RPK etc recently. I wonder what had happened to the young handsome man En. Saiful after the sworn-in incident. He seems to be “dissappeared” and no one knows where he is.

I don’t know if he has been sodomised or it was a conspiracy to accuse DSAI by accepting some Million ringgit as we shall leave it to the police force and justice system to determine.

Perhaps the insiders can advice us if Saiful is in the country or has take a vacation somewhere oversea, such as Australia?

I wonder….

 

Posted by iswanloke in 10:57:19 | Permalink | No Comments »

全球市场对救助计划投不信任票

在美国国会上周批准的7,000亿美元救助计划之外,美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)和欧洲各国政府周一又出台了新的救助措施。但全球市场却对此普遍投了不 信任票。欧洲股市出现至少20年来的最大跌幅,道琼斯指数跌破10000点大关,这种惨烈的景象或许表明决策者对危机或许已无能为力

不断加剧的市场动荡显示出金融危机已经远远超出美国次债危机的范围,到了更为根本性的信心崩溃的地步。欧美监管官员竭尽全力,但却未能解决最重要的问题:没有人知道哪家公司接下来会破产,令几乎所有人都害怕贷出资金。

问题已经十分严重,受影响的已不光是银行,还有普通企业。公司发现越来越难以为支付工人薪水和购买原材料等日常活动获得贷款。如果这种情况持续下去,短期信贷市场的冻结会给日趋疲软的全球经济带来沉重压力。投资者们现在正认识到这种严酷的现实。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081007/ecb150542.asp?source=whatnews1

Posted by iswanloke in 10:42:24 | Permalink | No Comments »

美国需要IMF























十年前,美国指导国际货币基金组织(简称IMF)分别向俄罗斯和亚洲国家推出了价值数百亿美元的救助一揽子计划。
十年后,美国自己进了金融急救中心。华盛顿并不需要IMF的资金援助,但却可能需要该机构在其他方面的帮助。
本周末,全球央行官员与财政部长将齐聚华盛顿,出席IMF和世界银行(World Bank)年会。考虑到各国之间的分歧隔阂,不要指望各国官员批准一项大规模计划,解决这场源自美国、正不断向全球蔓延的金融危机。不过,IMF可能可以督促不情愿的各国采取可能有助于美国的措施,可能开始为美国设计提议,重建其支离破碎的监管体制。
接受IMF的建议对美国会是一个重大改变,但IMF介入或许能够提高美国监管体制重组在海外的公信力。这一点很重要,因为美国正日益依赖海外投资者购买美国证券与持股陷入困境的美国金融机构。
前IMF首席经济学家、哈佛大学(Harvard University)教授罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)表示,有其他人在旁就如何解决金融危机出出主意,这对美国是件好事。他说,美国的认可也有助提高IMF的声望,使其在推进美国所期达到的目标时更有影响力,例如劝说中国加快人民币升值。
数月以来,厌烦美国经济传道的各国抓住美国金融危机的机会纷纷对美国模式提出批评。俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)周四表示,一国经济和一种货币主宰全球经济的时代已经逐渐成为过去。一周之前,美国在七大工业国(G7)中的六大伙伴国──德国、法国、意大利、加拿大、日本和英国──大多没有理会美国财政部的呼吁,要六国效仿华尔街7,000亿美元救助计划,拿出各自类似的救助方案,收购非流通资产。

但过去这个星期,形势正变得越来越明朗──金融问题正在不断扩散,并有可能引发全球性经济衰退。这一点在欧洲尤为明显,欧洲各国最近出手救助了5家银行,爱尔兰政府为几乎整个银行体系提供了担保。尽管欧洲各国仍然就是否批准一只欧洲救助基金争论不下,但他们来到华盛顿赴会时肯定会更加愿意谈论协调措施。
实际上,美国和欧洲央行已经密切合作,为跨大西洋金融体系提供了数目庞大的流动性。虽然英国央行(BOE)、欧洲央行(ECB)和美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)没有计划协调一致调整利率,但各家央行都暗示在减息问题上态度比几周前更加开放;减息措施或能刺激借贷,提振经济增长。
本周末的华盛顿会议为各国商讨额外措施提供了一个论坛。世界银行正在研究如何援助发展中国家,避免它们随着金融问题扩散而被卷入危机。官员们表示,最容易遭受冲击的此类国家包括土耳其、阿根廷、拉脱维亚、匈牙利和埃塞俄比亚,因为这些国家在财政上过度扩张,而且容易遭受出口大幅下降的打击。
世界银行行长佐立克(Robert Zoellick)表示,发展中国家正在进入一个新的危险地带,在出口、投资、信贷、银行体系、预算和收支平衡方面面临着更大的风险。
IMF总裁多米尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)表示,IMF可能会协调推出一个全球性的危机反应;但鉴于G7成员不愿遵从IMF指令,这似乎没什么可能。例如,IMF今年春天曾为美国准备了一份详细的金融救助计划,提出了用美国国债交换问题抵押贷款支持证券的设想──和美国财政部9月份最后推出的救助计划并没有太大差别。但据几位内幕人士透露,这一方案遭到了美国财政部摒弃,甚至没有呈送至财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)予以考虑。
彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute of International Economics)负责人伯格斯坦(Fred Bergsten)表示,此次IMF-世界银行年会或许能够促成一个全球性计划,为增长放缓的各经济体注入活力。一些国家可能会付诸于减息,而其他国家可能会选择减税或增加支出等财政手段。他表示,如果这一计划能够在国际协调的基础上实施,将会对心理或现实发挥更大影响力。
但考虑到西方七国集团近期拒绝美国呼吁各国制定救助计划,这一目标很可能是过于乐观了。美国财政部副部长麦考密克(David McCormick)表示,不同国家面临着不同的经济环境,不应指望各国大体步调一致。他说,我们应该在具体领域上进行合作,而不是炮制一个大而统的手段。
不过,IMF还是有诸多工作可做。西方七国集团财政部长将在IMF会议前先行聚会,可能会至少就需要采取进一步行动这点达成一致,并会重点关注某些具体领域。举例说,前IMF首席经济学家西蒙•约翰逊(Simon Johnson)表示,西方七国集团需要就存款保险达成一个共同标准,确保各国不会陷入争夺储户的混战。数十年来,西方七国集团采取的举措足以解决问题。但随着中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西等国家的经济影响力日益壮大,目前情况已经发生了变化。拥有185个成员国的IMF可以帮助说服发展中国家西方七国集团的倡议有其内在价值,就象IMF近期说服大型政府投资基金同意行为准则时所做的一样。
如果G7能够出台即便是规模有限的行动计划,那么经验丰富的政坛老手卡恩可能说服其他国家加入。美国的竞争对手届时可能会不再那么专注于奚落美国──虽然那种感觉可能会很好──而更加关注实施具体措施,巩固摇摇欲坠的全球金融体系。
Posted by iswanloke in 03:17:04 | Permalink | No Comments »

Monday, October 6, 2008

投资机会- 亚洲

给西方金融企业带来重创的信贷危机令亚洲在全球金融体系中担当了比从前更重要的角色。但亚洲金融公司的谨慎心态以及国际经验的相对匮乏或许会对它们运用这项新到手的权力形成制约。 由于自去年以来开展了若干项收购交易,日本、中国以及新加坡的银行和对冲基金已经成为了花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)、美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co.)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、瑞银(UBS AG)以及巴克莱(Barclays PLC)等银行的主要投资者。而且考虑到亚洲充裕的现金储备以及相对健康的金融环境,其影响力尚有进一步提升的空间。举例来说,截至6月底,中国四家最大的上市银行共持有现金及现金等值资产1,480亿美元。 而与此同时,西方银行则处在急需现金的状态。虽然上周五美国国会通过了价值7,000亿美元的救助计划,但一段时间内西方银行仍可能通过抛售资产来支撑自身财务。这有可能限制它们的扩张能力,从而为亚洲企业留出更多机会。 
里昂证券(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)的董事长罗伯•莫里森(Rob Morrison)说,日本及中国的银行将能够更好地开展业务,因为它们握有资金;资本发生了全球转移,亚洲就是力量核心所在。里昂证券是一家总部设在香港的经纪机构,法国农业信贷集团(Credit Agricole S.A.)持有其部分股权。 调查公司Dealogic提供的数据显示,从去年开始,亚洲大型投资者在收购非亚洲金融机构股权方面的支出已合计达到了780亿美元;而2006年时此类投资不过66亿美元。 不过,亚洲投资者仍很谨慎,以免自己在这条道上走得太远。
近几个月来,一些主权财富基金,如中国的中投公司(China Investment Corp.)和新加坡的淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.)均保持了观望态度;去年时它们都曾有过大手笔投资,但其中一些的回报情况很不理想。投资者在这类交易中的影响力较为有限,因为这些主权财富基金无意运营自己所投资的企业,而且假使它们有这样的打算,也将遭遇政治上的阻力。 在管理大批西方银行家方面经验不足也使得亚洲投资者基本上选择不考虑收购西方金融机构的控股权,即便后者的股价现在跌个不停。持有少数股权有助于亚洲公司缔结战略合作伙伴关系,并在景气复苏后获得投资回报;但如此一来也制约了亚洲在金融领域可能发挥的总体影响。 虽然长期以来日本公司在收购国外企业时可谓小心翼翼,但最近一段时间它们表现得格外活跃。不过,即便如此它们在收购控股权的问题上基本也是退避三舍。
上周,日本市值最大的银行三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)证实将斥资90亿美元收购摩根士丹利21%的股权;此前,该行还投资2亿美元收购了英国安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management PLC) 9.9%的股权。日本最大的经纪公司野村控股(Nomura Holdings Inc.)投入约2.25亿美元收购了雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)在亚洲、欧洲以及中东的业务。分析师表示,日本的保险业巨头或有意竞购美国国际集团(American International Group Inc.)所出售的资产。 亚洲的影响将不仅局限于对西方金融企业的投资。
亚洲央行一直是美国及欧洲国债的大买家,这使得它们最终对西方市场的利率水平拥有了些许影响力。亚洲银行向外海提供贷款的力度有所加大,而且亚洲公司在全球股票发行中也占据了越来越大的比重。 长期以来一直将外国人挡在门外的中国资本市场已逐渐变得更容易介入,也更加重要了。中国政府正在考虑允许外国企业在华上市,并且一直在建立铜和其他原材料的期货市场,这些市场在决定全球大宗商品价格方面正在发挥着越来越重要的影响。 在经历了日本坏帐危机以及十年前的亚洲金融风暴后亚洲一度变得畏手畏脚,而亚洲当前的姿态则表明自己已经重振旗鼓了。仅仅在五年前,中国的大型银行还被视为在技术上已告破产,因为此前几十年里它们一直在根据国家的意向发放贷款。后来中国政府出面注入了资金,以相对较低的估值向西方大型机构出售了这些银行的少数股权,并把他们“修理”一新进行了首次公开募股(IPO)。 
中国的银行业现在形势一片大好。中国最大的银行工商银行(ICBC)宣布今年上半年净利润飙升57%,达到了94亿美元。 但是过往的经历强化了人们的谨慎情绪。工商银行董事长姜建清9月底在天津出席世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)夏季年会时表示,工商银行将继续攥紧自己的口袋,谨慎地花每一分钱。他说,作为一家商业银行,工商银行不青睐逢低吸纳。截至目前,亚洲方面进行的海外投资中有很多都表现不佳。自中国国家开发银行(China Development Bank) 8月份收购英国巴克莱银行3.1%的股权后,后者股价已累计跌去了一半;而自从中投公司去年12月底收购摩根士丹利部分股权以来,后者股价已经下跌了逾50%。此外,中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司(Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd.)周日称,公司将因为其在富通集团(Fortis NV)中4.9%的股权投资计入23亿美元的减值准备,欧洲政府目前正准备向富通集团施以援手。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)大中国区业务董事总经理胡祖六(Fred Hu)说,中国投资者真的不清楚什么时候是再度向西方投资的良机;现在摆在跃跃欲试的中资企业面前的是很多很多机会,但早先的投资者显然搞得不太好,现在让他们来判断投资的合适时机真的很困难。 日本的银行在“突袭“西方金融机构方面曾处于有利地位。它们花费了数年时间来修补自己的资产负债表、重建国内业务──而在此期间帮助日本蓝筹股公司大举进行海外收购的“肥差”则落入了美国的银行手中。
日本银行业基本未因美国的金融危机而蒙受损失,它们手中持有国人的巨额存款可以用于投资。 但日本的企业管理者们也清楚地意识到了自身局限性。收购美国业务将使他们面临着管理华尔街银行家的挑战,后者热衷追逐风险、一心想增加自己的收入,这种行事风格与日本的企业文化简直格格不入。 日本某大公司驻纽约的日方高管表示,我的雇员们总要求我放手给他们更大的自由进行大额投资,因为他们希望得到更多的奖金,但我都没有点头,因为我必须要考虑到整个公司。 而不管中国的银行怎样雄心勃勃,它们在管理海外业务方面经验奇缺,这也成为了其大举海外扩张时所面临的另一个重要制约因素。中国交通银行(Bank of Communications Co.)独立董事汤姆•曼宁(Tom Manning)说,进行合并将成为摆在中资银行面前的一大挑战。他认为中资银行虽然可能会在美国或英国收购一家中型银行,却可能对收购大型银行敬而远之。以资产规模衡量,交通银行是中国第四大银行。
从国家开发银行8月份竞购德累斯顿银行(Dresdner Bank)一事中就不难看出中国在这一问题上究竟有怎样的潜力和局限。这一收购意向可谓大胆,作为一家政策性银行,国开行在本土没有一家面向零售客户的分支机构、也几乎没有任何海外业务,如今却试图收编拥有1,000多家网点的德国第三大行。 据知情人士透露,国开行向德累斯顿银行的母公司德国安联保险公司(Allianz SE)开出了比竞购者德国商业银行(Commerzbank AG)更高的报价,并表示愿意基本上以现金形式进行交易。而中国政府显然是顾虑到了其中的风险,对该项交易不予批准,最终安联保险接受了德国商业银行的报价。专家指出,如此摇摆不定的结果是,会有越来越多的人认为中国公司不会是欧洲热门及大型资产的真正竞购者。 
Posted by iswanloke in 08:22:23 | Permalink | No Comments »

Surprise us, please!

Dear PM,

Good day to you.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the Hari Raya holiday and have think it over on my proposal, last week.

Mean while, I don’t know who told Malaysianinsider that you’re going to tell all Malaysians that you will not defend the Umno president’s position by this wednesday, one day before the divisional election commence.

It must be real insider “insight” on your upcoming movement – every news stated in MalaysianInsider will become real, in particular, lately. Perhaps someone in your camp is very keen to out you soonest possible by giving all the confidential information to them. These information shall help your rivals to act against you, I suppose.

You must be embarrassed as whatever you discussed with your mates, to step down with dignity, to save face – has been exposed.

And you still listen to them – pity.

Pls don’t tell us that you’re doing that because you believes UMNO cannot survive any contest for the presidency between you and Najib – as stated in MalaysiaInsider.

You know it very well – your chance of winning is very slim.

So what are you going to do by this Wednesday?

Would you stun us by dissolution of the parliament, or allow yourself to be embarrassed again by announcing you’re not contesting?

You have 1+ days to decide and we’re looking forward to your surprise soon.

 
Posted by iswanloke in 08:15:02 | Permalink | No Comments »

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Bailout Bust May Have A Benefit

Read from wsj.com:

Don’t Panic. By throwing out a deeply flawed bailout plan, the House may have created an opportunity to craft a more effective response to the financial crisis.

With credit markets frozen and the Dow Jones Industrials Index plummeting 777.68 points Monday, the 228-205 defeat of the rescue package appears to come at the worst possible time. Plenty of experts think the ‘no’ vote has the power to wipe what little confidence remains in the markets.

But it also could lead policy makers, particularly Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, to draw up a plan that more directly addresses the factors causing the financial system to fall apart.

After all, the bill voted down Monday was unlikely to be a big help to the banking system. The market, upon seeing its details, may already have come to that conclusion, since stocks were down Monday before the House defeat.

If a better-thought-out plan emerges in the coming days, stocks may find a floor.

First, the Treasury has to recognize that it miscalculated and show that it is open to new ideas. The $700 billion package was meant to calm markets. But, for that to happen, the plan needed to be built and sold in a way that smoothed its passage through Congress.

Instead, the Treasury’s first document incited opposition because it gave the department extraordinary powers. And it demanded almost no quid pro quo from participating banks.

Next, congressional leaders who crafted the compromises to the Treasury’s proposal now need to demand real concessions. The provisions limiting executive pay need to be stronger. And the bill needs to contain hard-and-fast arrangements for the government to be properly compensated, with equity stakes, for taking on toxic assets.

This could damp much of the popular outcry.

More important, Treasury needs to address the two big problems crippling the banking system: lack of liquidity and capital.

The market is even turning against large regional banks that seem able to make it through the crisis. In addition to having the Federal Reserve lend liberally to them, the government needs to stanch deposit outflows, perhaps by temporarily guaranteeing all deposits.

That approach carries large risks, but it would buy the government time to push for consolidation in the banking system, something it has started with J.P. Morgan Chase’s purchase of Washington Mutual’s banking operations and Citigroup’s acquisition of Wachovia.

And, in a redrafted bill, the Treasury should demand that banks passing bad assets to the government simultaneously issue new equity to bolster capital. Some banks won’t be able to sell at any price, but many will find buyers if the government is backstopping their liquidity and taking their worst assets.

Posted by iswanloke in 05:17:29 | Permalink | No Comments »

PM Unusual Way to Counter Current Dilemma – Part 2

Dear Pak La,

Good day.

From the politic game perspective, I would not advice you to use unusual resolution before the special supreme MT meeting last Friday. Yes, you struggled but you were able to control the situation.

Not anymore. Thing has changed tremendously since then.

It would be silly if you feel that your legacy will be taken care of. Purely lip service. – Remember how you’ve promoted Muyudin to replace Rafidah before he “proposed for the top level should open for context” recently ?

Pls don’t compare with DrM – he has been in power for the last 20 years. And you (or your team) can still default his legacy since 2004.

While I can comprehend why you constantly “flip-flop” on what you said and did as you need to consult your team and make “some changes” the next morning, you’re responsible for the outcome, not them. And these consultants will certainly have their own interests, inclusive of your SIL. If you still listen to your existing advisers, you will fail and this time, you won’t be able to recover.

I know you, you are just an ordinary old man who love his children very much like most of the parent. You may have some vision for the country but becoming a PM maybe too much responsible for you – you just lose focus along the way.

The people will forgive you and thank you for your courage to make the most intelligent move - dissolution of Parliament for the holding of fresh general election.

You will stun your rivals, the oppositions, the country and the world.

You have nothing to lose.

You have 9 days to decide.

Good luck.

By the way, the last thing your rivals within do not want you to do is to liaise with DSAI. He may not be a good guy to talk to but from the game theory perspective, you should start to “communicate” with him so as to counter your rivals. Hey, perhaps DSAI will propose you to become the new government mentor or adviser a.k.a the current DrM role?

Hope you and DSAI read this.

 

Posted by iswanloke in 04:34:28 | Permalink | Comments (1) »

Monday, September 29, 2008

PM Unusual Way to Counter Current Dilemma

Don’t listen to your existing advisors anymore, whoever they are, please.

They have fail you and embarrassed you again & again since the politic tsunami last March.

Now you’ve been cornered to give in and release the position latest by Mar 2009.

I don’t know what gentleman deal you’ve been discussed, compromised and agreed with your MT team last friday. You may have discussed the conditions with them, openly or closely, to take good care of your “legacy” when you handover the power, I really don’t know.

Just remember how you’ve default those conditions with DrM overtime when you took over the premiership in 2004. Maybe it isn’t your fault to blame for on the cancelation of the “crook bridge” to Singapore etc. It may just out of your control during the progress to gain more support from UMNO.

This is politic – they will betray you sooner or later, waiting for the correct timing and it may start with KJ matters. In short, you’re not in control anymore, obviously. 

So, what can you do now? Do you really want to sit here and wait for the mercy from your MT friends?

You need to think of using unusual strategies for this special political situation such as - Advise the Yang di Pertuan Agong for a dissolution of Parliament for the holding of fresh general election, in which, can only be done by Prime Minister – you.

While this will end the political uncertainty in the country, you’re given the people an opportunity to decide whether they want a the BN government or a new Pakatan Rakyat federal government.

If BN won implies that “the people still support your leadership” and your fellow MT will have no excuses to challenge you again.

If BN lose, you lose as well, but the good news is – you CHECKMATE those UMNO rivals whoever “requested” you to give way for the sake of “party solidarity”. Think about it, what influences do they’ve when most of them have lost thier MB-ship by then.

Best, you would be rememberred in the history for this politic wisdom – you save the country by ended the political uncertainty, no matter you lose or win.

You might have another question – Will Najib and/or Muyidin volunteer to take up the BN leader for this re-election? They won’t. Why? Because they don’t want to be the person to blame for if BN lose more than 8-3-08. It would need a wise old man to do it – you. Just advice KJ not to contest and everything shall be fine – he’s too young for high level politic game. Hey, you know what, perhaps it’s the most scary move which your enemy in MT doesn’t want you to activate – they know they gonna lose if there is another election before year end.

I don’t know if your decision will hinge on the primary consideration of what is in the best interest for the nation OR your own best interest and that of your family. This maybe your last chance to keep your promises as per your 2004 campaign – Reform. Maybe this is your ultimate intention since you took over in 2004 – Reform BN?

You’ve 10 days to decide.

Hope you read this and think about the proposal.

Good luck.
Posted by iswanloke in 09:27:18 | Permalink | No Comments »

Bailout Plan Gains Key Support, or, Is it so?


There is no question that most of the American, even the world wants the bailout plan to be approved. But the key question is – will it work, or “soft-landed” the financial crisis to minimum impact. 


from WSJ.com:

The emerging plan to rescue wounded U.S. financial markets received the tentative support of both presidential candidates and key lawmakers Sunday, as days of haggling over the $700 billion package appeared to be coming to a close.

‘I’d like to see the details, but hopefully, yes,’ Sen. John McCain, (R., Ariz.) said when asked on ABC’s ‘This Week’ if he would support the plan. ‘The outlines that I have read of it, this is something that all of us will swallow hard and go forward with. The option of doing nothing is simply not an acceptable option.’

Lawmakers plan to vote on the bailout measure on Monday. Final details haven’t been released yet, but the agreement will include significant oversight of the Treasury Department’s purchases of troubled assets, executive compensation restrictions, the potential for equity stakes in firms that participate in the asset-sale program, and other taxpayer protections.

‘I’m not happy with the whole situation, but we have something we can support,’ House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said Sunday.

Sen. Barack Obama (D. Ill.) in remarks prepared for delivery at an event in Detroit, predicted swift passage of the bailout, which he said will include conditions he advocated.

‘Today, thanks to the hard work of Democrats and Republicans, it looks like we have a rescue plan that includes these taxpayer protections,’ Sen. Obama said. ‘And it looks like we will pass that plan very soon.’

The plan also received the support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. R. Bruce Josten, the lobbying group’s vice president for government affairs, said the package is big enough to be effective and flexible enough to be implemented quickly.

Overcoming Republican Opposition

The bailout compromise comes after House Republicans revolted against Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s initial proposal, which they complained was too costly and would cede too much power to the government. Their opposition to the pact derailed what Democrats, the White House and Senate Republicans believed was a preliminary deal on Thursday, forcing the negotiations to begin anew.

According to a summary of the final text of the legislation, the Treasury would be required to establish a mandatory industry-funded program to insure the soured assets it acquires through the Wall Street rescue plan. The inclusion of the insurance idea is a victory for House Republicans who had argued that taxpayers shouldn’t be left on the hook as part of the plan.

The summary, obtained from a congressional aide, said the Treasury would obtain equity warrants from companies participating in the program to help ensure the taxpayer would benefit in the future if the share prices of the firms increased.

t also states that the Securities and Exchange Commission will be given the authority to suspend mark to market accounting rules if the agency deems it necessary. And it authorizes the Federal Reserve to start paying interest on the regulatory reserves it requires financial firms to hold for capital adequacy reasons in 2008, rather than in three years’ time as it is currently scheduled to do.

The summary details the limits that would be imposed on senior executives at companies taking part in the scheme. They would differ depending on whether the Treasury directly purchased the toxic assets from a company or if the firm participated in an auction process to sell mortgage-linked assets to the federal government.

The board established to have oversight responsibilities of the bailout package would be comprised of the Treasury Secretary, the Fed chairman, the SEC chairman, the director of the Federal Home Finance Agency and the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

There would also be a separate oversight board created by Congress, and also oversight responsibilities held by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the U.S. Comptroller General and the creation of a Special Inspector General.

The full text of the legislation underpinning the $700 billion bailout is expected to be released by Congress later Sunday, before the Asian markets open.

Rep. Eric Cantor (R., Va.), who led the House Republican opposition, said he would have to see language on a proposal to require financial companies contribute to a mandatory insurance plan before declaring his full support.

‘I’m not ready to say a deal is done,’ Rep. Cantor said in an interview on CNN Sunday.

Read more from www.wsj.com


Posted by iswanloke in 04:38:40 | Permalink | No Comments »

Thursday, September 25, 2008

What if the USA Treasury Secretary is wrong….

What if Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is wrong about home prices, and the market is right? If so, his $700 billion bailout plan may prove ineffective and could lead to losses for taxpayers.

Mr. Paulson told senators Tuesday that his plan will ‘fundamentally and comprehensively address the root cause of this turmoil’ in financial markets. But that supposes that markets have frozen because overly pessimistic investors have made it impossible for banks to sell assets, and free up needed balance-sheet space, at anything but fire-sale prices. And that this, in turn, has choked off mortgage availability, driving property prices down further.

Breaking this logjam, the thinking goes, would mean home prices stabilize, if not rebound. Markets, on the other hand, see a more intractable cause: Homes were grossly overpriced, fueled by binge borrowing. For that to correct, prices must return to more affordable levels.

So far, markets have won the argument. Mr. Paulson hopes that $700 billion will change that. But even if he is right, it isn’t clear home prices will rise. They could simply stagnate.

That could still leave taxpayers shouldering losses on mortgage assets purchased from banks that haven’t yet accepted reality: Prices are unlikely to rebound soon.

They and the government may be fighting housing-market gravity. That is usually a losing battle.

一在房价问题上,美国财政部长判断错误而市场却是正确的?如果是这样的话,事实可能会证明鲍尔森7,000亿美元的救助计划将毫无成效,还可能令纳税人蒙受损失。

鲍 尔森周二向参议院表示,他的计划将从根本上全面解决金融市场动荡的根源问题。不过这一计划的假定前提是市场已经冻结了,因为投资者的过度悲观令银行难以出 售资产、腾出需要的资产负债表空间,除非银行开出大甩卖的价格;同时还假定市场的冻结会进而导致可利用的抵押贷款缩减,进一步拉低房地产价格。

按照鲍尔森的思路,打破了这个僵局就意味着房价会稳企,如果还不至反弹。另一方面,市场却看到了一个更加难以消除的原因:在无度借贷的推动下,房价高得离谱。为了纠正这个问题,房价必须回落到让人更能负担得起的水平。

到目前为止,市场在这场争论中一直是胜利者。鲍尔森希望7,000亿美元的救助能改变这一局面。不过就算鲍尔森是对的,目前仍不清楚房价是否会上涨。房价也可能只是停滞不动。

这仍可能令纳税人承受从那些尚未接受现实的银行手中购入的抵押贷款资产相关的损失。这个现实就是:房价不太可能会很快反弹。

银行和政府正在抵抗的或许是难以逆转的房市下滑势头。这通常是一场必败之仗。

Posted by iswanloke in 09:28:53 | Permalink | No Comments »